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Can the ‘high heel index’ predict economic growth?
“高跟鞋指数”能预测经济增长吗?
You will have heard of the hemline index. It was first theorised in 1926 by the economist George Taylor, and stated that skirts get shorter during times of financial prosperity and longer in a recession. But could a parallel theory work for women’s shoes? As we approach an era of Covid measures relaxing and spending gradually increasing, can the height of your heels be a good economic predictor of a boom or bust era?
我猜你们应该已经听说过裙摆理论了。1926年，经济学家乔治·泰勒(George Taylor)最早提出了这一理论，他指出，在经济繁荣时期，女人们穿的裙子通常更短，在经济衰退时期，则会选择较长的裙子。不过，同样的理论也适用于女鞋吗？随着新冠疫情管控措施的放宽，消费也在逐渐回暖，鞋跟的高度能否很好地预示经济的繁荣或萧条呢?
The exaggerated heel has been trending (a possible harbinger for the so-called roaring 20s) while the hashtag #pleaserheels (named after the high-arched shoe) has had more than 118m views on TikTok. At the weekend, Beyoncé paired a black Versace dress with barbie pink jacket and matching pair of super heeled shoes. Earlier in the month, Lady Gaga wore some baby blue body-con athleisure with some extreme platform heels.
夸张的高跟鞋已经成为潮流趋势(这可能是所谓“咆哮的20年代”的前兆)，同时#Pleaser高跟鞋(源于恨天高)的标签在TikTok上的点击量已经超过1.18亿。这周末，碧昂斯（Beyoncé）身着黑色范思哲连衣裙、搭配了一件芭比粉夹克和超高的高跟鞋。本月早些时候，Lady Gaga身穿淡蓝色紧身运动衣，搭配了一双超厚防水台高跟鞋。
Trevor Davis, a former consumer products expert at IBM, came up with a theory that matched heel length with economic upturns. “The index worked by analysing social media and other online sources for influencer and consumer references to shoes and boots where there was either a specific height of heel mentioned, like ‘four inches’ or a phrase that could be equated easily to a height,” he says. “We then correlated that with a variety of indicators of economic performance to get the index.” He says the data revealed that when economic indicators turned down the heel height initially went up, but if the economy remained in a recession state for more than a few months then heel heights went down.
IBM前消费品专家特雷弗•戴维斯(Trevor Davis)提出了一个理论，认为鞋跟高度与经济复苏是相对应的。他说道:“为了得出这项指标，我们通过各大社交媒体和其他网络资源，分析各大网红及消费者提及鞋子或靴子时的鞋跟高度数据，比如‘4英寸’这种具体高度，或是直接反应鞋跟高度的其他说法，” “然后，我们将这些数据和各种经济指标关联起来，最后得出了这个指数。” 他说，数据显示，每逢经济下滑，鞋跟高度最初都会增高，但如果经济持续几个月处于低迷状态，那么鞋跟高度就会下降。
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