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文章内容节选自《经济学人》
The outbreak began in December. The repeated mingling of people and animals in China means that viral mutations that infect humans are likely to arise there; and mass migration to cities means that they are likely to spread between people. This virus probably originated in bats and passed through mammals, such as palm civets or ferret badgers, ending up in Wuhan’s wet market, where wild animals were on sale. Symptoms resemble flu, but can include pneumonia, which may be fatal. About 20% of reported cases are severe, and need hospital care; about 2% of them have been fatal. As yet, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment.
新冠病毒于去年12月爆发。在中国，人和动物之间的反复融合意味着可能会出现感染人类的病毒突变；大量的人口迁移到城市意味着病毒突变很可能在人群中传播。这种病毒可能源自蝙蝠，通过类似棕榈果子狸或雪貂獾等哺乳动物传播，最后出现在武汉的海鲜市场，而这个海鲜市场也出售野味。感染该病毒之后的症状类似于流感，但其会引发能致死的肺炎。报告病例中约20%是重症病例，需要住院治疗；其中约2%是致命的。截止目前为止，还没有对症的疫苗或抗病毒治疗。
The greatest uncertainty is how many cases have gone unrecorded. Primary health care is rudimentary in China and some of the ill either avoided or were turned away from busy hospitals. Many more may have such mild symptoms that they do not realise they have the disease. Modelling by academics in Hong Kong suggests that, as of January 25th, tens of thousands of people have already been infected and that the epidemic will peak in a few months’ time. If so, the virus is more widespread than thought, and hence will be harder to contain within China. But it will also prove less lethal, because the number of deaths should be measured against a much larger base of infections. As with flu, a lot of people could die nonetheless. In 2017-18 a bad flu season saw symptoms in 45m Americans, and 61,000 deaths.
最大的不确定性是有多少病例尚未记录在案还是未知的。中国的基础卫生保健还处在初级阶段，一些病人要么未被排查出患病，要么无法被繁忙的医院接收。越来越多的人可能症状非常轻微，以至于他们没有意识到自己被感染。香港学者建立的模型显示，截至1月25日，已有数万人感染，疫情将在几个月内达到顶峰。如果是这样的话，该病毒的传播范围比想象的要更广，因此在中国境内将更难以控制。但它也将被证明致死率没有那么高，因为死亡人数应该与更大的感染基数进行比较。和流感一样，很多人还是会死。2017年至2018年，流感肆虐的季节曾导致4500万美国人感染，6.1万人死亡。
Scientists have started work on vaccines and on treatments to make infections less severe. These are six to 12 months away, so the world must fall back on public-health measures. In China that has led to the biggest quarantine in history, as Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province have been sealed off. The impact of such draconian measures has rippled throughout China. The spring holiday has been extended, keeping schools and businesses closed. The economy is running on the home-delivery of food and goods.
科学家已经开始研究疫苗和治疗方法，缓解感染的严峻形势。但研究至少还需6到12个月的时间，所以世界必须依靠公共卫生措施。在中国，新冠病毒导致了历史上最大规模的隔离，武汉和湖北省其他地区已经被封锁。这些严厉措施的影响已波及整个中国。春节假期延长，学校停课、企业停工。而经济只能靠食品和商品送货上门来维持。
Many experts praise China’s efforts. Certainly, itsscientists have coped better with the Wuhan virus than they did with SARS in 2003, rapidly detecting it, sequencing its genome, licensing diagnostic kits andinforming international bodies. 许多专家称赞中国为应对新冠病毒所做出的努力。当然，与应对2003年的SARS相比，中国科学家在应对2019-ncov方面做得更好，他们迅速检测出了2019-ncov，对其基因组进行了测序，批准了诊断工具，并通知了国际机构。
That may have undermined a measure which istaking a substantial toll. China’s growth in the firstquarter could fall to as little as 2%, from 6% before the outbreak. As China accounts for almosta fifth of world output, there will probably be a noticeable dent on global growth.
这可能破坏了一项会造成重大损失的举措。中国第一季度的经济增长率可能会从疫情爆发前的6%降至2%。由于中国产出占全球产出的近五分之一，全球经济增长可能会出现显著放缓。
Outside China such quarantines are unthinkable. The medical and economic cost will dependon governments slowing the disease’s spread. The way to do this is by isolating cases as soonas they crop up and tracing and quarantining peoplethat victims have been in contact withindeed, if the disease burns out in China, that might yet stop the pandemic altogether. If, bycontrast, that proves inadequate, they could shut schools, discourage travel and urge thecancellation of public events. Buying time in this way has advantages even if it does notcompletely stop the disease. Health-care systems would have a greater chance to prepare forthe onslaught, and to empty beds that are now full of people with seasonal flu.
想象不到还有哪个国家能像中国一样做到这样的隔离。医疗和经济成本将取决于政府能否减缓疾病的蔓延。减缓疾病蔓延的方法是，一旦发现病例，立即隔离，并追踪和隔离与患者有过接触的人——实际上，如果这种疾病在中国消失，或许能够阻止疫情在全球的蔓延。相反，如果这种方式被证明是不够有效的，他们可能关闭学校，阻止旅行，并敦促取消公共活动。即使这种方式并不能完全阻止疾病扩散，利用这种方式争取时间依然是有好处的。卫生保健系统将有更多的机会为这次“战疫”做准备，并腾出现在满是季节性流感患者的病床。
Despite all those efforts the epidemic could still be severe. Some health systems, in Africaand the slums of Asia’s vast cities, will not be able to isolate patients and trace contacts. Much depends on whether people are infectious when their symptoms are mild (or before theyshow any at all, as some reports suggest), because such people are hard to spot. And also onwhether the virus mutates to become more transmissible or lethal.
尽管作出所有这些努力，疫情形势仍可能十分严峻。在非洲和亚洲大城市贫民窟的一些卫生系统无法隔离病人、追踪接触者。这在很大程度上取决于人们在症状轻微的时候是否具有传染性(或者像一些报告所显示的那样，在他们表现出任何症状之前)，因为这样的人很难被发现。这还取决于病毒是否会突变，变得更具传染性或致死性。
The world has never responded as rapidly to a disease as it has to 2019-ncov. Even so, thevirus may still do great harm. As humans encroach on new habitats, farm more animals, gather in cities, travel and warm the planet, new diseases will become more common. Oneestimate puts their cost at $60bn a year. SARS, MERS, Nipah, Zika, Mexican swine flu: thefever from Wuhan is the latest of a bad bunch. It will not be the last.
世界对一种疾病的反应从来没有像对2019-ncov这样迅速。即便如此，这种病毒仍可能造成巨大损害。随着人类侵占新栖息地、饲养更多动物、聚集在城市、旅行并使地球变暖，新型疾病将更加普遍。据估计，每年抗击新病毒的成本为600亿美元。SARS、中东呼吸综合征、尼帕病毒、寨卡病毒、墨西哥猪流感，而2019-ncov是最新的病毒。而这不会是最后一种。
写在最后：最近新冠的扩散引发了新一轮西方唱衰中国的言论，其实不仅是这一次，几乎每一次中国出现危机的时候，就会有很多具有煽动性的言论出现，不可否认，ZF确实有一些做的不好的地方，我们可以合理地批评，但一定不要轻易被某一种舆论煽动，外面的月亮也并不是都比国内圆，其实我们读外刊地目的，不仅仅是学习语言，而是通过语言看到更大的世界，一定不要只相信某一个媒体的舆论，也不要觉得西方媒体就都是正义的，而是通过看不同体制，不同媒体的报道，养成自己独立思考，判断是非的能力。希望我们都能在信息洪流时代，做一个理性的人。
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