本帖最后由 子曰汉硕刘老师 于 2021-8-15 14:38 编辑
Who's Rational about Risk?
谁在风险面前可以保持理性？
Scientists often complain that people are irrational in their opposition to technologies such as nuclear power and geneticalIy modified(GM)crops. From a statistical perspective, these are very safe, and so (it is argued) people's fear can be explained only by emotion, undergirded by ignorance. Electricity from nuclear power has led to far fewer direct deaths than has coal-fired power, yet many people are afraid of it, and hardly anyone is afraid of coal plants. Similar arguments can be made about GM crops, which studies have shown are generally safe for most people to eat.
科学家经常抱怨人们在反对诸如核能源和转基因作物等技术时是不理性的。从统计学的角度来看，这些都是非常安全的，因此（有人认为）人们的恐惧只能通过情绪来解释，即无知会引起人们的恐惧。核能发电导致的直接死亡人数比火力发电要少得多，但许多人却对核能源感到恐惧，而几乎没有人害怕燃煤电厂。关于转基因作物也可以得出类似的论点，研究表明，对大多数人来说，食用转基因作物是安全的。
Scientific illiteracy may be part of the problem. Most of us are afraid of things we don't understand, and studies have shown that scientists tend to be more accepting of potentially risky technologies than laypeople. This suggests that when people know a lot about such technologies, they are usually reassured.
对科学的无知是导致这个问题的部分原因。我们大多数人都害怕我们不了解的事情，而且研究表明，与外行人相比，科学家更倾向于接受存在潜在风险的技术。这表明，当人们对此类技术进行深入了解后，通常会消除顾虑。
But there's more to the issue than meets the eye. It is true that many of us fear the unknown, but it is also true that we can be cavalier about routine risks. Part of the explanation is complacency: we tend not to fear the familiar and thus familiarity can lead us to underestimate risk. The bipartisan commission that reviewed the Deepwater Horizon blowout and oil spill concluded that complacency-among executives, among engineers and among government officials responsible for oversight-was a major cause of that disaster. So the fact that experts are unworried about a threat is not necessarily reassuring.
但是，这个问题比表面看到的要复杂的多。诚然，大多数人确实害怕未知的事物，但是对于常规风险我们也可以保持漫不经心。一部分原因是自满：我们倾向于不惧怕熟悉的事物，因此熟悉会使我们低估风险。由两党组成的委员会对“深水地平线”井喷和漏油事件进行了审查，并得出结论：高管，工程师以及负责监督的政府官员的自满情绪是造成这场灾难的主要原因。因此，专家并不担心威胁这一事实并不一定令人放心。
Scientists also make a mistake when they assume that public concerns are wholly or even mostly about safety. Pope Francis, for example, rejects genetic modification of organisms in part because he views it as an inappropriate interference in God's domain；this is a theological position that cannot be refuted by scientific data. Some people object to GM crops such as Roundup Ready corn and soy because they facilitate the increased use of pesticides. Others have a problem with the social impacts that switching to GM organisms can have on traditional farming communities or with the political implications of leaving a large share of the food supply in the hands of a few corporations.
当科学家们认为公众担忧的全部或大部分都与安全有关时，他们也会犯一个错误。例如，教皇方济各拒绝了生物体的基因改造，部分原因是他认为这是对上帝所涉领域的不当干涉；这属于神学立场，科学数据无法对此予以驳斥。一些人反对转基因作物，例如抗农达玉米和大豆，因为它们增加了农药的使用量。其他人则担心转基因生物可能对传统农业社区产生的社会影响，或大量食品供应只由少数公司控制的政治影响。
Geoengineering to lessen the impacts of climate change is another example. Some concerns about geoengineering-not just among laypeople but among scientists as well-have more to do with regulation and oversight than with safety. Who will decide whether this is a good way to deal with climate change? If we undertake the project of setting the global temperature by controlling how much sunlight reaches Earth's surface, who will be included in that"we", and by what process will the"right" global temperature be chosen?
减轻气候变化影响的地球工程是另一个例子。对地球工程的一些担忧（不仅是外行人，还有科学家之间），都更多与法规和监督有关，而与安全无关。谁来决定这是否是应对气候变化的好方法？如果我们实施一个项目，通过控制多少阳光可以到达地球表面来设定全球温度，那么“我们”中将包括谁，以及通过什么过程来选择“正确的”全球温度？
Such considerations may help explain the results of a classic study of perceptions of health risks from a polluted environment, which showed that white women, as well as nonwhite men and women, were substantially more worried about these risks than white men. Because scientists are for the most part less worried about risks than laypeople, we might conclude that the insouciant white men are right and the others unnecessarily troubled.
这些考虑因素可能有助于解释关于污染环境对健康风险的经典研究结果，该研究表明白人女性，以及非白人男性和女性，比男性白人更加担心这些风险。因为科学家在大多数情况下都比外行人担心风险的系数更低，所以我们可以得出这样的结论：无忧无虑的男性白人是正确的，而其他人则承受了不必要的困扰。
Of course, the majority of scientists are white men, so it's not entirely surprising that their views track with those of the demographic group to which they belong. And there is a more important point here: risks are not equally distributed. Women and people of color are more likely to be the victims when things go wrong (think the Marshall Islands or Flint, Mich), so it makes sense that they tend to be more worried. Moreover. women and people of color have historically been excluded from important decision-making processes, not just in science and technology but in general. When you're excluded from a decision-making process, it is not irrational for you to view that process as unfair or to be skeptical about what it yields.
当然，大多数科学家是男性白人，因此，他们的观点与他们所属的人口群体的观点一致并不奇怪。这里还有一个更重要的观点：风险并不是平均分配的。当出现问题时，女性和有色人种更有可能成为受害者（想想马绍尔群岛或密歇根州的弗林特），所以他们更担心是有道理的。而且，历史上，女性和有色人种曾在重要的决策过程中被排除在外，不仅在科学技术领域，而是在几乎所有场合都是如此。当你被排除在决策过程之外时，你认为该过程不公平或对其产生的结果持怀疑态度并不是没有道理的。
Can we say whether men or women are more rational about risk? Can we say which groups view is closer to an accurate as sessment? Well，here's one relevant datum: women are more likely than men to wear seat belts.
我们能否得出结论男性或女性，哪一个群体对待风险更理性？我们能否得出结论哪个族群的观点更精确？其实，这是一组相关数据：女人比男人更有可能系安全带。
词汇积累
1. irrational adj. 不合理的，荒谬的；不理性的
2. geneticalIy modified crops 转基因作物
3. undergird英 [ʌndə'gɜːd] vt. 加强；从底层加固 4. illiteracy n. 文盲，无知
5. laypeople n. 外行人
6. reassure英 [ˌriːəˈʃʊə(r); ˌriːəˈʃɔː(r)] 美 [ˌriːəˈʃʊr] vt. 使安心；使消除疑虑；安慰；重新保证 7. meet the eye 呈现在眼前，显而易见 熟语：there's more to the issue than meets the eye 这个问题比表面看到的要复杂的多
8. cavalier 英 [ˌkævəˈlɪə(r)] 美 [ˌkævəˈlɪr]adj. 漫不经心的，无忧无虑的
9. complacency 英 [kəmˈpleɪsnsi] 美 [kəmˈpleɪsnsi] n. 自满，自鸣得意
10. bipartisan英 [ˌbaɪˈpɑːtɪzæn; ˌbaɪpɑːtɪˈzæn] 美 [ˌbaɪˈpɑːrtɪzn] adj. 两党连立的；代表两党的 11. theologicaladj. 神学的，神学上的
12. refute英 [rɪˈfjuːt] 美 [rɪˈfjuːt] vt. 反驳，驳斥；驳倒 13. facilitate英 [fəˈsɪlɪteɪt] 美 [fəˈsɪlɪteɪt] vt. 促进；帮助；使容易 14. switch to 转变，转换成 15. share n. 份额（注意在考研英语真题中share考察的比较多的含义也是份额） 16. Geoengineering 地球工程/气候工程17. lessenv. 减少，减轻，使变少（注意和lesson课程进行区分）18. insouciant英 [ɪnˈsuːsiənt] 美 [ɪnˈsuːsiənt] adj. 漫不经心的，漠不关心的；无忧无虑的 19. demographic英 [ˌdeməˈɡræfɪk] 美 [ˌdeməˈɡræfɪk] adj. 人口结构的；人口统计的 20. track （注意考研高频词）英 [træk] 美 [træk] n. 轨道；足迹，踪迹；小道 vt. 追踪；通过；循路而行；用纤拉 vi. 追踪；走；留下足迹
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