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What if bitcoin went to zero?
如果比特币归零了会怎么样？
The recent expansion of the crypto-universe is a thing of wonder. Only a year ago there were about 6,000 currencies listed on CoinMarketCap, a website. Today there are 11,145. Their combined market capitalisation has exploded from $330bn to $1.6trn today—roughly equivalent to the nominal gdp of Canada. More than 100m unique digital wallets hold them, about three times the number in 2018. Holders have become more sophisticated and deep-pocketed, too. Institutions account for 63% of trading, up from 10% in 2017.
最近加密宇宙的扩张是一件令人惊奇的事情。就在一年前，CoinMarketCap网站上还只有大约6000种货币上市。目前有11145种加密货币。它们的总市值已从3300亿美元激增至如今的1.6万亿美元——大致相当于加拿大的名义gdp。目前有超过1亿个数字钱包持有数字货币，大约是2018年的三倍。持有者也变得更加老练和富有。机构交易量占总交易量的63%，高于2017年的10%。
This maturing, however, has failed to tame the wild gyrations that characterise crypto markets. Bitcoin sank from $64,000 in April to $30,000 in May. Today it hovers around $40,000, having dipped to $29,000 as recently as July 29th. Every downward lurch raises the question of how bad the fallout might be. Too much seems at stake for the cryptocurrency to collapse—and not just for the die-hards who see bitcoin as the future of finance. Still, in order to grasp the growing links between the crypto-sphere and mainstream markets, imagine that the price of bitcoin crashes all the way to zero.
然而，这种成熟并没有抑制加密市场的剧烈波动。比特币从4月的6.4万美元跌至5月的3万美元。7月29日跌至29000美元，如今徘徊在40000美元左右。每一次下滑都会引发这样一个问题：后果会有多严重？加密货币崩溃的风险似乎太大了——不仅仅是那些将比特币视为金融未来的顽固分子。不过，为了把握加密领域和主流市场之间日益增长的联系，想象一下比特币的价格一路跌至零会发生什么。
The result would be the destruction of a significant amount of wealth. Long-term holders would suffer small losses relative to the price they paid, but cede huge unrealised gains. The biggest losses relative to the purchase price would fall on those who bought less than a year ago, at an average price of $37,000. That would include most institutional investors exposed to crypto, including hedge funds, university endowments, mutual funds and some companies.
其结果将是大量财富的毁灭。长期持有者将遭受相对于他们支付的价格的一些小损失，但会放弃巨大的未变现收益。相对于购买价格而言，最大的损失将落在那些购买时间不到一年的人身上，平均价格为3.7万美元。这将包括大多数投资于加密货币的机构投资者，包括对冲基金、大学捐赠基金、共同基金和一些公司。
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