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Could climate change trigger a financial crisis?
气候变化会引发金融危机吗？
In recent years regulators have begun warning about the threat that climate change poses to the stability of the financial system. Following its strategy review in July, the European Central Bank (ECB) will assemble a “climate change action plan”. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, warned of financial risks from climate change as long ago as 2015. In America the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last year published a 200-page report beginning “Climate change poses a major risk to the stability of the us financial system.”
近年来，监管机构已经开始就气候变化对金融体系稳定构成的威胁发出警告。继7月份的战略评估之后，欧洲央行将制定一项“气候变化行动计划”。英国央行前行长马克•卡尼早在2015年就警告过气候变化带来的金融风险。在美国，商品期货交易委员会去年发布了一份200页的报告，报告的开头是“气候变化对美国金融体系的稳定构成了重大风险”。
Just how damaging does climate risk stand to be, though? Early stress tests by central banks and disclosures of companies are starting to shed light on the question. For the most part, the evidence that it could bring down the financial system is underwhelming. But a lot hangs on whether governments set out a clear path for reducing emissions, such as through carbon taxes and energy-efficiency standards, giving banks enough time to prepare.
然而，气候风险能有多大的破坏性呢？各国央行进行的早期压力测试和企业披露的信息正开始揭示这个问题。在大多数情况下，它会拖垮金融体系的证据并不令人印象深刻。但很多问题取决于政府是否制定了一条明确的减排路径，比如通过碳税和能源效率标准，给银行足够的时间做准备。
Climate change can affect the financial system in three ways. The first is through what regulators describe as “transition risks”. These are most likely to arise if governments pursue tougher climate policies. If they do, the economy restructures: capital moves away from dirty sectors and towards cleaner ones. Companies in polluting industries may default on loans or bonds; their share prices may collapse.
气候变化可以从三个方面影响金融体系。第一种是通过监管机构所称的“过渡风险”。如果政府采取更严厉的气候政策，这些问题最有可能出现。如果他们这样做了，经济就会重组：资本从污染严重的行业转移到清洁行业。污染行业的公司可能会拖欠贷款或债券，它们的股价可能会暴跌。
