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标题: 外刊阅读｜《经济学人》欧洲国家的老龄化正在分裂欧洲 [打印本页]

作者: 子曰汉硕刘老师 时间: 2021-8-16 14:17
标题: 外刊阅读｜《经济学人》欧洲国家的老龄化正在分裂欧洲

All across Europe, people are living longer and having fewer children. The same trends are, of course, seen in other rich countries, and many developing ones—but coping with them will be harder in Europe, because of its half-formed union where workers can move freely and many countries share a currency, but where there is no common fiscal policy or strategy to deal with ageing.

欧洲各地的人口寿命越来越长，生育率也越来越低。当然，其他富裕国家和许多发展中国家也存在相同的趋势。但在欧洲，应对这些问题会更加困难，因为欧洲的工会制度不太成熟--工人可以自由流动，许多国家共用一种货币，却没有统一的财政政策或战略来应对老龄化。

Investors are well aware of some of Europe’s shortcomings. The sovereign-debt crisis showed that converging inflation and interest rates did not, by themselves, ensure a sustainable currency union or integrated banking system. Wage bargaining, regulation and so on need to converge to stop imbalances between countries building up. Less well understood is that demography could also tear the union apart.

投资者都很清楚欧洲的短板。主权债务危机表明，只是让通货膨胀和利率趋同并不能确保可持续的货币联盟或统一的银行体系。工资议价、法规等都需要趋同，以阻止国家之间不断扩大的失衡。人们不太了解的是，人口结构也可能使欧盟分裂。

Even though Europe receives more migrants than it loses, the UN projects that its population will fall by around 5% by 2050. By then the median European will be 47 years old, nine years older than at the turn of the century, and four years older than the median American. In 2015 there was about one person older than 65 for every four people of working age (ie, an old-age dependency ratio of around 25%). By 2050 there will be two, to America’s three.

尽管欧洲接收的移民数量超过其迁出的人口数量，但据联合国预测，到2050年，欧洲人口将减少5%左右。届时欧洲的中位年龄将为47岁，比本世纪之交时的中位年龄大九岁，比美国的中位年龄大四岁。2015年，欧洲约每四个劳动力赡养一位65岁以上老人（即老年人口抚养比约为25%），到2050年将变成每两个劳动力赡养一位老人，美国则是三个劳动力赡养一位老人。

Some countries will suffer even more. Spain and Italy are expected to lose more than a quarter of their workforce by 2050. Populations in the south and east are forecast to shrink by a tenth on average. With fewer workers, those countries risk seeing growth stagnate, even as rising spending on pensions and health services pushes up public debt.

一些国家的情况将更严重。预计到2050年，西班牙和意大利的劳动人口将缩减超过四分之一。南欧和东欧的人口预计将平均缩减十分之一。由于劳动力减少，这些国家将面临增长停滞的风险，而且养老金和医疗服务支出的增加甚至还会推高公共债务。

The 28 members of the European Union fall into three broad groups. Women in northern and western countries tend to have more children than the EU average (Germany is an exception). Though their fertility rates are below the 2.1 needed to sustain a population, high immigration means their populations have still grown.

欧盟的28个成员国可分为三大类。北欧和西欧国家女性的生育率往往高于欧盟平均水平（德国是个例外）。尽管这些国家的生育率低于维持人口所需的2.1，但大量移民的涌入使得它们的人口仍在增长。

本文节选自：The Economist（经济学人）

原文标题：All of the rich world is ageing. But demography could tear Europe apart

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词汇积累

1. half-form 半成型的

2. currency

英 [ˈkʌrənsi] 美 [ˈkɜːrənsi]

n. 货币；通货

辨析：current

英 [ˈkʌrənt] 美 [ˈkɜːrənt]

adj. 现在的, 最近的；流通的，通用的；

3. fiscal

英 [ˈfɪskl] 美 [ˈfɪskl]

adj. 会计的，财政的；国库的

4. converge

英 [kənˈvɜːdʒ] 美 [kənˈvɜːrdʒ]

v. 使汇聚，聚集，收敛

5. integrated

英 [ˈɪntɪɡreɪtɪd] 美 [ˈɪntɪɡreɪtɪd]

adj. 综合的；完整的；互相协调的

v. 整合；使…成整体（integrate的过去分词）

6. build up 增进，加强，逐步建立

7. demography

英 [dɪˈmɒɡrəfi] 美 [dɪˈmɑːɡrəfi]

n. 人口统计；人口统计学

8. shrink

英 [ʃrɪŋk] 美 [ʃrɪŋk]

v. （使）缩小，（使）收缩；（尤指因恐惧而）退缩，畏缩

9. stagnate

英 [stæɡˈneɪt] 美 [ˈstæɡneɪt]

v. 停滞；淤塞；变萧条

10. tear ... apart 使...分裂、把...弄乱、撕开

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