为了应对气候变化,石油生产国开始尝到了崩溃的滋味。
有人称,石油是流经世界经济动脉的血液。那么2020年的经济恐怕已是血流成河。由于“新冠疫情”使得工人只能呆在家里,飞机也只能停飞,对石油的需求比历史上任何时候都下降得更快、跌幅更大。3月初,沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的激烈争端引发了一场价格战,加剧了这种冲击。上个月,石油价格下跌了一半以上,使这个庞大的产业摇摇欲坠。
On April 12th, the world’s energy superpowers broke bread and reached a new deal to try to prop up prices. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, said they would slash production by 9.7m barrels a day from May to the end of June, a record, and restrain output for two years. In the 20th century Uncle Sam was keen to undermine OPEC, but in 2018 America became the biggest oil producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia. President Donald Trump’s re-election depends on the shale states of Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio. He argued for the pact and said the industry would recover “far faster” than expected.
4月12日,世界能源超级大国们一起进餐并达成了一项新协议,试图支撑油价。石油输出国组织(OPEC)及其盟友(包括俄罗斯)表示,从5月至6月底,他们将创纪录地每日减产970万桶石油,并在未来两年内限制原油产量。在上个世纪,美国(美国外号山姆大叔Uncle Sam)热衷于削弱OPEC的影响力,但在2018年,美国超越沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯,成为最大的石油生产国。唐纳德·特朗普总统的连任依赖于德克萨斯州、宾夕法尼亚州和俄亥俄州等页岩油州的支持。他支持该协议,并表示石油行业的复苏将“远远快于”预期。
In fact, private oil firms, state-controlled companies and countries that rely on energy exports should brace themselves for a long period of pain, and use the crisis to begin the restructuring that will have to take place if the planet is to deal with climate change.
事实上,私人石油公司、国有企业和依赖能源出口的国家应该做好准备,迎接长期的痛苦,并利用本次危机开始重组。如果地球要应对气候变化,那么这些原油生产企业和国家就必须进行重组。
This week’s grand bargain is unlikely to work. For a start the sums don’t add up. Global demand may fall by 29m barrels a day this month, three times the OPEC deal’s promised cuts. Private firms outside the alliance may reduce output, too, but by how much is uncertain. And no one knows when demand will pick up. Oil stockpiles are rising and storage capacity could be exhausted within weeks.
本周的这项新协议不太可能奏效。首先,总和不累加。本月全球石油日需求量可能下降2900万桶, 是OPEC减产承诺的三倍。联盟之外的私营石油企业也可能减少产量,但具体会减少多少还不确定。没有人知道需求何时会回升。石油库存正在增加,总体的储存能力可能在几周内就达到饱和。
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